In the quest for a successful fantasy baseball season, identifying players likely to bust is just as crucial as finding the right sleepers. Early-round pitchers come with significant risk, and dropping a high-cost player mid-season can severely hamper your team's chances. Using past examples like Alek Manoah and Bobby Miller, a pitcher bust is typically someone dropped from most fantasy rosters. Key indicators of a potential bust include below-average chase rates on two-strike counts, average balls in play rates, and fluky HR/FB ratios.

This season, potential busts include Bryce Miller and Spencer Schwellenbach, both of whom exhibit concerning metrics. Miller's two-strike chase rate is below average, and Schwellenbach, despite a strong finish last season, faces challenges with his pitch mix and competition for the starting role. Meanwhile, pitchers like Luis Castillo and Framber Valdez, who are experiencing declines, warrant close monitoring despite not meeting all bust criteria. Understanding these dynamics can help fantasy managers avoid costly mistakes.