The Denver Nuggets are on the brink of securing home-court advantage in the first round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs with a win against the Houston Rockets. A victory would lock them in as the No. 4 seed, following a turbulent week that saw them fire head coach Michael Malone. Despite the coaching shake-up, Nikola Jokic remains a dominant force, having averaged a triple-double for the season and coming off a strong performance where he scored 26 points, 13 assists, and 16 rebounds against the Grizzlies.

The Rockets, already settled in as the No. 2 seed, aim to keep their momentum by fielding their top players, with only Jae'Sean Tate listed as unavailable. The Nuggets are favored by 9 points, with the total set at 234.5. Betting analysis suggests looking at player props for Jokic, who may not hit his points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) line, especially as he historically underperforms in similar matchups. The SportsLine Projection Model indicates that Jokic could fall short of his PRA line, projecting him for 45.2 against the Rockets.