As the 2025 MLB season approaches, fantasy baseball managers should consider pivoting their approach to drafting starting pitchers. Traditional metrics such as ERA can be misleading, as outside factors often influence a pitcher's performance. Instead, focus on skills like K-BB% and CSW, alongside favorable conditions such as run support and park factors.

Big-name pitchers like Jacob deGrom, who has struggled with injuries but posted a stellar 29.5 K-BB% when healthy, present both risk and reward. Newer talents like Spencer Schwellenbach of the Atlanta Braves are shining, with a promising second-half showing last season. Others like Brandon Pfaadt and Nick Lodolo offer sleeper potential despite prior inconsistencies. As fewer pitchers are expected to hit 200 innings, strategizing around this evolving landscape will be key for fantasy success.

The evolution of the role of the starting pitcher in baseball signifies a shift in how metrics are assessed, moving beyond traditional pitch counts to advanced analytics. This change introduces both challenges and opportunities in fantasy baseball, especially in identifying late-round pitchers who can exceed their average draft positions (ADP). Here are five standout pitchers with current ADPs between 100-250 capable of making significant impacts for fantasy rosters.

Jared Jones of the Pittsburgh Pirates has an ADP of 142.4 and, despite being overshadowed by teammate Paul Skenes, showed potential with a solid 4.14 ERA and 26.2% strikeout rate. He’s known for his high velocity and swing-and-miss capabilities. Miami's Sandy Alcantara, once a Cy Young winner, is recovering from injury but is expected to return strong, making his ADP of 166.4 an attractive option. Brandon Pfaadt of the Arizona Diamondbacks sits at 182.5 and has a promising upside despite an inflated ERA due to bad luck. Free agent Nick Pivetta, who posted an impressive 11.54 K/9 in 2023, is currently undervalued with an ADP of 200.2, while MacKenzie Gore from the Nationals rounds out the list with an ADP of 207.2, having shown steady improvement over his career.

Several pitchers are attracting attention as potential value picks for the upcoming MLB season. Spencer Schwellenbach of the Atlanta Braves, despite being ranked as the SP29, has shown top-15 starter potential with a remarkable second-half performance. Brandon Pfaadt of the Arizona Diamondbacks has a lower ERA than his SIERA suggests, indicating possible positive regression. Meanwhile, Nick Lodolo of the Cincinnati Reds has a high strikeout rate and exhibits top-20 upside, even with injury concerns. Clarke Schmidt of the New York Yankees is undervalued at SP65 but boasts impressive metrics that suggest he could outperform expectations. Lastly, Spencer Arrighetti of the Houston Astros, currently sitting at SP72, has also shown significant potential and could be a strong sleeper choice.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have made a bold move by signing ace right-hander Corbin Burnes to a six-year, $210 million contract, marking a significant investment for a team not typically known for big spending. Owner Ken Kendrick expressed confidence in the team's championship potential, noting that this investment reflects their commitment to competitiveness in the challenging NL West.

Despite missing the postseason last year, the D-backs aim to enhance their roster, bolstered by the addition of Burnes, who looks to solidify an already strong starting rotation. His decision to join Arizona stemmed from both baseball opportunities and personal ties to the region.

Corbin Burnes has signed a monumental six-year, $210 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks, which is the largest in the franchise's history. The deal, finalized on Monday, includes significant deferred payments totaling $64 million that will be distributed from 2031 to 2036. Burnes will receive a $10 million signing bonus shortly after the contract's approval, alongside salaries of $30 million in 2025 and 2026, and $35 million for the subsequent four years.

The contract also features a unique opt-out clause after the 2026 season, allowing Burnes to reassess his situation. If he chooses to stay, the deferred payments will begin at $10 million in 2031 and increase to $11 million in subsequent years. Furthermore, he has a no-trade clause through March 2027, with the ability to designate 14 teams he cannot be traded to thereafter.

In addition to his impressive financial terms, the contract offers performance bonuses for awards such as the Cy Young Award and All-Star selections, as well as perks like premium season tickets and a hotel suite during road trips. Burnes joins a promising Diamondbacks rotation alongside Zac Gallen and Eduardo Rodríguez, having previously excelled with the Milwaukee Brewers and Baltimore Orioles.