Fantasy baseball managers are often eager to invest in breakout players, yet caution is warranted when evaluating their potential for sustained success. This analysis highlights three starting pitchers from the 2024 season whose impressive performances may not be replicable in 2025. Understandably, fantasy enthusiasts are looking for reliable options, but not all breakouts translate into consistent value.

First on the list is Luis Gil of the New York Yankees, who, despite winning the American League Rookie of the Year, displayed alarming regression signs, particularly in his second-half statistics. Additionally, Seth Lugo of the Kansas City Royals had a stellar 2024 but also showed signs of downturn, raising questions about his ability to maintain such performance levels. Lastly, Hunter Greene from the Cincinnati Reds overcame earlier struggles but may have overperformed, leading to skepticism about his future as a top draft pick.

Michael Lorenzen has signed a one-year contract worth $7 million with the Kansas City Royals, including a mutual option for 2026, pending a successful physical. The contract features a $5.5 million salary for the upcoming season and a $12 million option for 2026 with a $1.5 million buyout.

Since being traded from Texas to Kansas City before the deadline, Lorenzen has solidified his role on the pitching staff. Last season, he recorded two wins and a 1.57 ERA in seven games, which included six starts. He contributed to the Royals' wild card success and had two playoff appearances, although he experienced a tough loss in Game 1 against the New York Yankees.

Cole Ragans, the ace for the Kansas City Royals, is currently positioned as a leading contender for the American League Cy Young Award, boasting the third-best odds at +850, trailing only Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers and Garrett Crochet of the Boston Red Sox.

In the 2024 season, Ragans showcased his prowess on the mound, finishing with an 11-9 record and a 3.14 ERA. His performance was pivotal in leading the Royals back to postseason play, where they triumphed over the Baltimore Orioles in the wild card round before facing the New York Yankees in the ALDS.

Ragans, a former first-round draft pick by the Texas Rangers in 2016, was traded to the Royals in 2023. He emerged as one of the top strikeout pitchers, registering 223 strikeouts in 186.1 innings, and led the American League in strikeouts per nine innings. His impressive season earned him a spot in the All-Star Game and a fourth-place finish in the Cy Young voting.

With a career record of 18-17 and a 3.46 ERA, Ragans forms a strong starting rotation alongside Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo. The Royals, who finished second in the American League Central, are aiming for greater success in 2024, having already added infielder Jonathan India to their roster.

The Kansas City Royals have successfully avoided arbitration with pitcher Kyle Wright, signing him to a $1.8 million contract for the 2025 season. This deal mirrors his salary from the previous season, during which he was sidelined due to right shoulder surgery.

Wright, who missed all of 2024, aims to return for Opening Day and could be a key addition to the Royals' starting rotation. His past performance includes leading the league with 21 wins in 2022 and contributing to the Atlanta Braves' World Series victory in 2021.

The Royals, who finished second in the American League Central, are looking to strengthen their roster for a competitive 2025 season.

Kyle Wright has signed a one-year contract worth $1.8 million with the Kansas City Royals, avoiding salary arbitration. This deal maintains his previous salary as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery.

Despite not pitching in 2024, the Royals are optimistic about his potential for the 2025 rotation. The team, which boasted a strong pitching lineup last season, will see competition for spots following recent trades and player agreements.