In the quest for a successful fantasy baseball season, identifying players likely to bust is just as crucial as finding the right sleepers. Early-round pitchers come with significant risk, and dropping a high-cost player mid-season can severely hamper your team's chances. Using past examples like Alek Manoah and Bobby Miller, a pitcher bust is typically someone dropped from most fantasy rosters. Key indicators of a potential bust include below-average chase rates on two-strike counts, average balls in play rates, and fluky HR/FB ratios.

This season, potential busts include Bryce Miller and Spencer Schwellenbach, both of whom exhibit concerning metrics. Miller's two-strike chase rate is below average, and Schwellenbach, despite a strong finish last season, faces challenges with his pitch mix and competition for the starting role. Meanwhile, pitchers like Luis Castillo and Framber Valdez, who are experiencing declines, warrant close monitoring despite not meeting all bust criteria. Understanding these dynamics can help fantasy managers avoid costly mistakes.

The Houston Astros are bracing for a significant overhaul of their pitching staff ahead of the 2025 season. Key losses include Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi, who have signed with the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Angels, respectively. Jose Urquidy was non-tendered, leaving the Astros with a roster that is heavily reliant on recovering players like Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, and Luis Garcia.

One player to watch is Hunter Brown, who had a stellar debut in 2022 but struggled in 2023. However, in 2024, he rebounded to become the team's No. 2 starter behind Framber Valdez, showcasing improved metrics, including a 2.6 WAR and exceptional hard contact avoidance. With Valdez also projected to be a free agent, the Astros could look to secure Brown with a pre-arbitration extension to maintain their competitive edge.

Framber Valdez, in his final season before free agency, expressed readiness for both contract discussions and the possibility of exploring free agency. The Houston Astros have yet to approach him about an extension, but Valdez remains open to negotiations, emphasizing his aim to perform to the best of his abilities regardless of the situation.

Valdez's impressive performance over the last three seasons has positioned him as a coveted left-handed starter, potentially leading to a lucrative free-agent deal. Given his track record, he could command a higher contract than the Astros' previous extensions, notably the $85 million deal for Lance McCullers Jr. The Astros, known for avoiding long-term contracts, may face challenges retaining Valdez if his season continues on this upward trajectory.

The Houston Astros are poised for a promising season, heavily relying on a starting rotation that boasts a remarkable mix of talent and metrics. All five of their projected starters rank within the top 106 based on advanced metrics like Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+, underscoring their effectiveness on the mound.

Framber Valdez, ranked 12th, stands out as the ace with an impressive ERA of 2.82 since 2022. His ability to consistently eat innings—averaging over 200 per season—coupled with a potent sinker and breaking ball, positions him as a cornerstone of the rotation. Meanwhile, Hunter Brown is emerging as a formidable force, boasting a fast sinker that has exceeded 96 mph, further complemented by a dynamic four-pitch arsenal.

Spencer Arrighetti, ranked 61st, offers a tantalizing mix of dominance and inconsistency, leveraging his elite curveball and fastball to achieve a solid strikeout rate. Ronel Blanco, though viewed as a typical fourth or fifth starter, possesses deceptive pitch characteristics, including a mid-90s fastball paired with a developing changeup, which enhances his effectiveness. Rounding out the rotation is Hayden Wesneski, projected for a solid contribution with a mix of fast, breaking pitches and a unique delivery that generates movement.

The Houston Astros have been a powerhouse in the American League, clinching the AL West title for four consecutive years and seven times in the last eight seasons. They reached the ALCS in each year since 2017 until their recent setback against the Detroit Tigers in the ALWC, which raised questions about their dynasty. This offseason, the Astros had to part with significant players, including Justin Verlander, who joined the San Francisco Giants, and Kyle Tucker, traded to the Chicago Cubs. The decision to trade Tucker was crucial, given the uncertainty surrounding other stars like Alex Bregman and Framber Valdez, who will also hit free agency soon.

The Astros’ trade with the Cubs has reinvigorated their farm system, acquiring third baseman Cam Smith, the team's new top prospect. However, their minor league system remains weak overall, a consequence of prioritizing immediate success over long-term development. One promising prospect, Anderson Brito, has shown potential with his strong performance in the minors, suggesting he could emerge as a significant player in the next couple of years. As the team navigates these transitions, the future remains uncertain yet hopeful.