As the fantasy baseball draft season nears, the focus shifts to identifying starting pitchers to target or fade based on their performance metrics. Analyzing SIERA (Skill Interactive Earned Run Average) provides insights into pitchers whose ERAs may not reflect their true effectiveness. Pitchers like Hunter Greene, Reynaldo Lopez, and Ronel Blanco are highlighted as significant overachievers, showcasing how their ERAs deviated from their SIERA values.

Greene, now 25, posted impressive stats, dropping his ERA significantly, but with concerns about sustainability due to low home runs allowed and a need for a reliable third pitch. Lopez's first full season as a starter yielded surprising results, but indicators suggest he might regress to a mid-rotation role. Blanco, while successful, also faces regression risks with inflated SIERA metrics. Additional pitchers deserving scrutiny include David Peterson and Andrew Abbott, who may not meet expectations this season.