Fantasy managers should be cautious about relying on certain tight ends as touchdown regression looms. Mark Andrews of the Baltimore Ravens, for example, had a stellar 2024 season with a 16.0% touchdown rate, which is unsustainable given his overall target volume and historic averages. Andrews’s low target count paired with a high touchdown catch rate raises concerns for 2025.

Tucker Kraft from the Green Bay Packers capitalized on teammate injuries but is expected to face stiffer competition in the upcoming season, making his touchdown total likely to dwindle from the seven he posted last year. The same can be said for Zach Ertz, who at 35, experienced a surprising resurgence in 2024 with seven touchdowns, but his age and status as a tight end make him a regression candidate for 2025.